Written By John Bryant

Updates to Computer Models; Look for More Accurate Hurricane Forecasts This Year

New Computer Model Updates Should Increase Precision with Hurricanes This Summer

Hey, everyone, I just got off a call with NOAA’s Model Evaluating Group, and I wanted to share an exciting update about improvements being made to hurricane forecasting this year. As someone who loves talking about the weather, this is cool stuff.

We all know how unpredictable hurricanes can be. Predicting their path and strength is no easy task, and errors, even small ones, can make a big difference for coastal communities and increasingly farther inland locations now than in previous decades.

Well, the forecasters have been hard at work tweaking their hurricane models. And this year, they’re making significant changes that should make predictions much more reliable.

The updated models are designed to fix the tendency forecasts had of veering storms too far to the right. This means the predicted path will align closer to what happens. More accurate tracks mean people get a more actual sense of what to expect.

They’re also refining how they estimate wind speeds and the size of storms. Forecasting intensity and the potential impact zone are so important when preparing. These new model adjustments aim to provide more precise information.

For those of us in hurricane country or anywhere intense large storms roll in, this type of progress matters. There is more lead time to get ready and less uncertainty about what’s coming. It all helps us face these storms with greater confidence. Emergency managers can also use the improved data to coordinate responses more efficiently.

Overall, it’s an exciting time for meteorology. NOAA and the Hurricane Center are constantly working to solve challenges and better understand these powerful forces of nature. These model upgrades represent a significant step towards minimizing risk from hurricanes. I’m looking forward to how they perform this season. By the way, hurricane season officially begins June 1st.