The wait is over. NOAA has just released its highly anticipated March 2025 weather outlook, and it’s bringing smiles to some faces while others might be reaching for hope at best. If you’re planning a late-season ski trip, this forecast could make or break your powder dreams.
THE SOUTHERN STRUGGLE IS REAL! (At least for the first half of the month)
There are no surprises here: southern regions from the Southern Plains to the Mid-South and Gulf Coast will continue facing challenging snowstorms, unlike January and February. It should be noted that some of the biggest snows have come in the Mid-South in March, so not all hope is lost. One model has snow on St Patrick’s Day in Northwest Arkansas, but I never trust a model that far out.
Shortened seasons likely for many southern ski areas
Above-normal temperatures dominating the forecast
Below-normal precipitation further reduces natural snow chances
Big Winners: Colorado (in the near term), the Pacific Northwest & Alaska Primed for Powder Days
Pack your skis and head north! The Pacific Northwest and Alaska, and perhaps Colorado next week, are shaping up to be the big winners this March with a perfect storm of conditions:
- Below-normal temperatures keeping snow preservation at optimal levels
- Above-normal precipitation translating to frequent refresh cycles
- Cold air masses ensure that precipitation falls as snow, not rain
Mt. Baker, Crystal Mountain, and resorts across the PNW could see multiple powder days, while Alaska’s Alyeska Resort might become the stuff of legend this March. If deep, cold smoke is what you’re after, booking a trip to these regions now might be your smartest move of the season.
Struggling Southwest: Spring Conditions Come Early
Unfortunately, if your home mountains are in the Southwest (including California), you might be looking at spring skiing conditions arriving early:
- Above-normal temperatures accelerating snowmelt
- Below-normal precipitation limiting natural snow refreshes
- Increased reliance on snowmaking at many resorts
This means the clock is ticking for Mammoth, Palisades Tahoe, and other California favorites. Early March might still offer decent conditions, but expect deterioration as the month progresses. Arizona Snowbowl and New Mexico’s Taos Ski Valley will face similar challenges, potentially cutting their seasons short.
Roll the Dice: Rockies & Northern Plains Face Uncertainty
Planning a trip to Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, or Montana? You’re rolling the dice with this forecast:
- Equal chances for above, near, or below-normal temperatures
- Conflicting models on precipitation expectations
- Highly variable conditions possible even within the same week
This uncertainty means Epic and Ikon pass holders targeting Vail, Park City, Jackson Hole, or Big Sky should remain flexible with their plans. The good news? This variability could deliver surprising powder days when the conditions align just right.
Eastern Promise: Great Lakes & Northeast May Surprise
Don’t count out the East Coast just yet! The forecast suggests some promising signals:
- Above-normal precipitation favored across much of the region
- Temperature uncertainty that could still deliver cold fronts
- Higher-elevation resorts like Jay Peak, Killington, and Whiteface potentially seeing significant March snowfall
While not as confident a bet as the Pacific Northwest, eastern skiers might be pleasantly surprised by late-season conditions, especially at resorts with north-facing terrain and higher elevations.
The Arctic Influence
I am closely monitoring the Arctic Oscillation, which could bring dramatic swings in conditions as March progresses. This atmospheric pattern will primarily benefit northern regions with periodic cold air outbreaks, potentially delivering surprise powder days when they coincide with precipitation events.
What This Means for Your March Ski Plans
If you’re planning a March ski vacation, here’s your action plan based on NOAA’s outlook:
- Book now for Pacific Northwest and Alaska if deep powder is your priority
- Go early in March if targeting the Southwest before conditions deteriorate
- Stay flexible with Rockies and Northern Plains trips, watching short-term forecasts closely
- Consider midweek trips to the Northeast when precipitation events align with cold fronts
- Keep expectations realistic for the southern regions
The Overall Pattern
While month-to-month variability is normal, this forecast continues to reflect broader trends affecting North American ski seasons. The north-south divide in temperature expectations aligns with the predictions of warming impacts affecting southern regions first and most severely.
For the dedicated snow seeker, the message is clear: March 2025 won’t disappoint if you know where to look. While some regions brace for early spring conditions, others are gearing up for what could be the best powder days of the season.
If you need a weather expert for weather-related litigation, you can always reach out to me via phone and email. My number is 901.283.3099 and by email at [email protected]. I recently finished a complicated report of an insurance dispute that was the most challenging case I have had in a deep mountainous area where I had to provide weather information that no one was able to find. I’m here to help anytime!