As extreme weather events increase in frequency and severity, accurate weather forecasting has become critical in shaping legal and insurance strategies. SEEDS (Scalable Ensemble Envelope Diffusion Sampler), a new AI-powered weather forecasting model developed by Google, offers a breakthrough in generating accurate, probabilistic weather forecasts. For defense attorneys and insurance professionals, forensic meteorologists can use SEEDS to provide fast, reliable data that can be used to support or challenge claims related to natural disasters.
As I have written about this year, models are not completely there yet with AI, but improvements continue weekly. So why do I mention this?
While SEEDS can provide innovative accuracy, it is essential to acknowledge the butterfly effect, where small changes in atmospheric conditions can lead to vastly different outcomes. This inherent unpredictability remains a challenge for even the most advanced AI models. However, SEEDS mitigates some of this uncertainty by producing ensemble forecasts, showing a range of outcomes instead of a single deterministic forecast.
1. What is SEEDS and How Does It Work?
SEEDS uses generative AI to produce ensemble forecasts—multiple simulations of weather outcomes based on small variations in starting conditions. Traditional models often require immense computational power, but SEEDS can generate 256 ensemble forecasts in just three minutes, making it both faster and more affordable.
SEEDS is adept at predicting extreme weather events like hurricanes, heat waves, and floods by analyzing atmospheric data and extrapolating numerous scenarios. This provides legal and insurance professionals with probabilistic forecasts that quantify uncertainty, offering critical data when assessing risk or determining liability.
2. Using SEEDS to Support or Refute Legal Claims
One of SEEDS’ key benefits is its ability to help forensic meteorologists, and attorneys challenge or support extreme weather claims. In cases where negligence or failure to act is alleged, SEEDS’ probabilistic data can show whether the weather event was predictable.
For instance, if a business is sued for not evacuating before a hurricane, SEEDS data can demonstrate that forecasts were uncertain or showed a low probability of the storm’s path. This information can serve as powerful evidence to reduce liability by proving the business acted given the available forecast.
3. AI-Driven Claims Verification for Insurers
Insurance companies are also set to benefit from SEEDS, particularly in claims verification. After a weather related event, SEEDS’ data can be used to cross check claims with actual weather patterns. This is especially helpful in identifying fraudulent or exaggerated claims, where the reported damage may not align with the weather conditions at the time.
For example, following a flood, SEEDS can verify whether the weather event was as severe as claimed, helping insurers make more informed decisions on payouts and coverage.
4. Early Preparation and Proactive Risk Management
SEEDS provides faster forecasts and can give forensic meteorologists a strategic advantage by allowing early preparation for extreme weather events. With forecasts generated in minutes rather than hours, attorneys and insurers can take preemptive action long before a weather event strikes.
For attorneys, this means gathering evidence and preparing arguments earlier in potential weather-related litigation. For insurers, SEEDS allows for proactive claim management, helping clients mitigate damage and reduce the overall financial impact.
The point in all this. SEEDS can be a valuable tool for Legal and Insurance Risk Management. I look forward to keeping you updated!